“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
— George Santayana, The Life of Reason, 1905
The Trump administration has announced that there has been an electronically signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Being a student of history, I cannot help but be reminded of the 1938 Munich Agreement (Accord) between Nazi Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy. That agreement, without any Czechoslovakian input, ceded a disputed border area known as the Sudetenland to Adolf Hitler. Hitler’s claim was that the region was home to ethnic Germans and should be part of Germany. Not wanting any confrontation, the UK and France, represented by Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Premier Edouard Daladier, believed that this concession would lead to continued European peace and appease Hitler’s quest for territorial expansion. The “deal” did neither, as we know. In less than a year, Hitler would overrun Czechoslovakia and Poland, beginning World War II. Neville Chamberlain would infamously return to England and declare possessing a signed document from Herr Hitler and that there would be “peace for our time.” Hitler would later refer to the signed Munich Agreement as just a piece of paper.
I came on active duty in the United States Army at Ft Sill, Oklahoma, one week after the 23 October 1983 Beirut barracks bombing. I support President Trump’s combat action against the militant, theocratic, tyrannical Iranian regime. However, I am very concerned that the “Ghosts of 1938” may be rearing their heads with this proposed MOU with the number one sponsor of Islamic terrorism in the world.
One of the mandatory book readings I had as a young Army Artillery Second Lieutenant was that of a Chinese military strategist, “The Art of War.” Sun Tzu talks about war being about imposing your will upon the enemy before they can do likewise. In reading initial reports and listening to the President and Vice President speak on this MOU, I objectively assess that we have not imposed our will upon the Iranian regime. If anything, we have appeased it. Yes, we have decimated their Air Force and Navy, but we have done little to their ground forces, namely the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. We may have degraded their ballistic missile and drone capability, but it has not been destroyed, certainly not obliterated. Yes, there were many of their leaders who were killed, including the Ayatollah Khamenei, but the same hardliners are still in power, including delusional clerics, now led by the Ayatollah’s son.
We have not defeated the Islamic Republic of Iran, meaning their regime. We must realize that there can be no change in Iranian behavior if the same regime is still in place. Just the same as giving in to Hitler’s demand for the Sudetenland only increased his belligerence.
Unfortunately, this regime remains in power and is still in control of the Strait of Hormuz, which we should have taken. The regime still has access to revenues flowing from its oil and gas production by way of Kharg Island, which we should have seized. The Iranian regime has never abided by any agreement, accord, MOU, or anything, and we should not “hope” that they will this time. They are masters of deflection and obtuse antics, and when we had them at a breaking point, we let up and gave in to a two-week ceasefire, which they repeatedly broke. And, of course, two weeks extended to two months of being strung along under the questionable seeking of a “deal.” It is imprudent to believe you can make a deal with evil.
So, where do we go from here?
Reports that Iran could be receiving billions of dollars in infrastructure repair are quite disconcerting, along with sanctions relief. Yes, we are told that this is condition-based, but, as alluded to, when have the Iranians ever met prescribed conditions? As well, this MOU is only supposed to open the door to two more months of talk about their nuclear program and materials, stringing them along. Ronald Reagan once said, “Trust but verify.” With Iran, you cannot trust, and they will do everything possible to stymie verification. So, if the Iranians take their normal path of dismissal, what then? Shall we re-engage with combat operations? We are already witnessing the drop in oil prices, but what happens if Iran stalls? When you watch the press briefings from the Iranian foreign minister’s office, you do not see a defeated enemy that is surrendering. You see a defiant adversary, the same one that shouts “Death to America,” demanding resources for their damages.
We did not finish the job here with Iran. We tossed them a lifeline. And understand, as a combat veteran, I understand the cost in lives; however, we who serve this nation in uniform understand those risks and the consequences. We only ask for clear guidance and the ability to execute with violence our mission. When the enemy knows that you have a reticence and recalcitrance to engage because you are afraid of losing troops, that is, and always has been, a gap they will exploit. I am not a warmonger or neocon. I am a realist who recognizes that there are some in this world who only understand strength and might. The Art of War, not deals.
And for this MOU to direct a sovereign nation, Israel, to be restrained in how it deals with an Islamic terrorist organization, the same one responsible for killing those 241 Marines in 1983, is insane. Israel is not fighting against Lebanon. They are engaged against Hezbollah, a proxy army of Iran. In no uncertain terms should this MOU direct Israel, or the United States, from prosecuting combat operations against non-state, non-uniformed Islamic terrorist organizations—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Yes, peace in the Middle East is a desired goal, but it cannot be attained by wearing the same rose-colored glasses as Neville Chamberlain in 1938. We must study and learn from history, or, as it may be the case here, be condemned to repeat it.
Steadfast and Loyal.
